On the Fence
Immigration Issue Forces Bush to Walk a Tightrope

By Sara Schaefer Munoz
Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

President Bush is under growing pressure from friends and foes to try to stop the tide of illegal immigration into the U.S. But he is still struggling for a policy that satisfies both sides.

Anger over America's immigration strategy has become a headache at home and abroad for the president. Increasingly powerful Hispanic voters-45% of whom voted to re-elect Mr. Bush-are eager for rules that make it easier for immigrants to work and ultimately gain citizenship. Mexico is pressing the U.S. to find a way to legalize the flow of immigrants.

Yet across the border in Arizona, voters recently overwhelmingly backed a measure to crack down on illegal aliens' access to public services, and demonstrators in New Jersey, California and elsewhere have protested against undocumented foreigners' lining up on suburban sidewalks looking for work.

Mass Deportations?

The 2000 U.S. census counted eight million illegal immigrants, a figure now widely estimated to be closer to 10 million. Immigration experts say around 750,000 enter the country each year to work, with 350,000 settling in the U.S. permanently. "With every hour that passes, the feeling that something must be done is sinking in," says Demetrios Papademetriou, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a research group in Washington. "It is an economic and social issue of the first order."

Prescriptions range from offering amnesty to those in the U.S. illegally to conducting mass deportations. In a bid at compromise, the president proposed a guest-worker initiative last year. If it became law, it would create a process to let immigrants work in the U.S. for as long as three years, with a chance to renew a work permit for another three years if no American citizen could be found to fill the job.

Under pressure from conservative groups, the White House didn't want to be seen rewarding illegal conduct. But Hispanic groups complained that the Bush plan didn't offer immigrants who had been here for years a way to become legal residents.

The plan languished until President Bush and then-Secretary of State Colin Powell held a flurry of meetings with foreign leaders that revived talk-if not the plan itself. During a recent trip to Chile, Mr. Bush told Latin American leaders: "It's important for our country to recognize that people are coming to our country to do jobs that Americans won't do." He added that there was a need for a plan that would "recognize the desire of some to come to America to work and the desire of some in America to employ them."

Earlier, Mr. Powell met with Mexican President Vicente Fox and said the administration would work with Congress to "develop a temporary-worker program to match willing foreign workers with willing U.S. employers."

The White House says immigration reform is indeed a top priority, thought it's not clear when a detailed policy might emerge. A spokeswoman says Mr. Bush is talking to members of Congress about a proposal that would "meet the nation's economic needs" and "live up to America's tradition of being a welcoming nation."

But questions remain. So far, there is no indication of how many temporary visas would be issued. The total number of visas is important because the demand for foreign workers has outstripped the number of visas available for programs already up and running. The 2005 quota for the H1-B visa-granted to skilled workers with job offers from U.S. companies-was filled in a few days. After businesses complained, Congress approved an extra 20,000 visas.

The program might also require a large bureaucracy to monitor the employer-immigrant link, but if it became too burdensome, immigrants and employers might avoid it and resort to underground employment. A huge question is whether guest workers' family members also would be eligible for visas, a step that some experts say could double or triple the number of foreigners entering the U.S. under the program.

'Right Direction'

Immigration advocates have their own concerns. "The program will only create an underclass of cheap labor if there is no path to permanent residency," says Katherine Culliton, immigration attorney for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund, a Latino advocacy group in Los Angeles. However, Ms. Culliton applauds the administration's willingness to tackle the problem, calling the guest-worker program "a step in the right direction."

Some pro-immigration groups and some lawmakers want an amnesty provision-something the White House clearly opposes. At the same time, there has been a shift in thinking by many congressional Republicans who find the only acceptable immigration reform would include more deportations.

House Republicans put this new mood on display during last year's debate over a bill to overhaul U.S. intelligence agencies when they came out strongly for a provision to deny drivers licenses to illegal aliens. "The ferocity of the House Republicans' stance took everybody by surprise," says Roy Beck, who runs USA Numbers, an anti-immigration lobby group. "The only way the president can get an immigration-reform policy going is if he comes up with credible enforcement measures."

Even before the revolt over the license provision, Mr. Bush had been sounding out lawmakers on a middle-ground policy. He met with Arizona's Republican Sen. John McCain, a longtime crusader for legislation that would bring low-skilled workers into the country while also tightening border security with increased technology and unmanned aerial vehicles.

"If the president doesn't take the initiative, he will have to play by the rules created by the right wing of his own party," says Mr. Papademetriou of the Migration Policy Institute.

Still, many Republicans, including Idaho Sen. Larry Craig, plan to keep pushing legislation that would make it easier for agricultural workers to enter the U.S. legally. Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Sen. Craig, said legalizing unskilled labor is necessary. "It's either that or send the National Guard door-to-door to get everyone."

What do you think of President Bush's guest-worker initiative? Write to letters.classroom@wsj.com.